The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, as expected, and warned of inflationary pressures and trade challenges. The Fed Chairman appears determined to ‘thumb his nose’ at the President and hold interest rates at elevated levels, for as long as possible. It appears the Fed is looking for reasons to hold rates higher, rather than real economic problems, as inflation has been tumbling under Trump. The Middle East war rages on, with the Trump administration fully supportive of Israeli actions, although resisting the temptation to formally join their allies. UK inflation fell to 3.4%, while EU inflation remains subdued, at 1.9%. The Bank of England may be tempted to cut rates, a further 25 basis points, as the Swedish Riksbank did overnight. The EUR held below 1.1500, while the GBP traded around 1.3450, ahead of the B of E rate decision.The reserve was steady following the Fed’s rate decision, which allowed the AUD to regain 0.6500, while the NZD consolidated above 0.6000. The NZ Q1 current account revealed continued large deficits piling up, but the institutionalised mismatch, does not seemingly worry markets or the Government. NZ markets will look at today’s latest GDP number, which is expected to be marginally positive, but does not reflect the reality of the economic problem. GDP is only positive, due to record breaking immigration, while GDP/capita reveals the horrifying economic realities. Australia markets will be focused on Unemployment, expected to remain stet, while the world watches the Middle East.
